Mashable.com ponders on leaking of American Gangster
Kristin over at Mashable.com writes on Denzel Washington Film Leaked: Whose Fault is it This Time?
My question would be just how many people will actually end up viewing this “leaked” film prior to (or after) the release of the film in the theatres? My guess is not nearly enough to make a single dent in the box office gross.
Another relatively “educated” guess is that the people that do end up seeing the leaked film are NOT people that would spend a dime to see the theatre version. And if that (risky) assumption is true (lets just agree for now it is) then again, the film is not losing any money from the fact that it was leaked.
In fact, I believe there is a certain amount of “leakage” (not sure why I’m fixated on leak today!) that is allowed to transpire solely for the press coverage that gets afforded to the act itself, and consequently to the project. Now I’m not saying this is the case with AG at all. But think about it: if my above assumptions are true, and Universal is NOT going to lose any real money to speak of, and will net a bunch of media placements (this mashable story is but one of the many to come) then the only other derivative aspect of this “leak” (there it is again!) is that the people illegally viewing the film early are going to talk about it to all of their friends.
So, my conclusion (long and drawn out as it has been!) is that the only way (in this case) Universal is really going to be upset about this film showing on the Net early, is if it is not a very good film. If it’s bad, it will get negative “early reviews” and THAT is what will really hurt the box office sales; not the fact that a dribble of folks downloaded and watched it ahead of time.
Of course these are just my thoughts. I could be in left field (on Pluto!)
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6 Responses to “Mashable.com ponders on leaking of American Gangster”
Posted by: Goji Capital - 11/05/2007
I never understood why media companies get so upset about early movie and album leaks. If people really like what they see, they’ll be willing to spend the money to enjoy it legitimately. And like you said, it is such a small percentage of the population that is actually knowledgeable enough to download a leaked movie.
Posted by: James D Kirk - 11/06/2007
Right on, GC. I’ve tried to download and watch films (back in the day when paying for software was vorboden
)
It’s not much fun. But it does give the media something to “report” on, right?
Thanks for your comments!
Posted by: Las Vegas Real Estate Guy - 11/07/2007
I think you are absolutely right. The people that are going to download it weren’t the ones that were going to buy a ticket. I just saw a study about PnP networks. They found by letting people swap songs, sales actually increased because they were being exposed to more music. Goji makes a good point too. The percentage of people who can find and download the film is very, very small.
Posted by: James D Kirk - 11/07/2007
Actually, that was Goji siting my words there LVREG! But it’s all good! Nice to see ya back around these parts. Thanks so much for the comments.
Posted by: Chris B. - 11/25/2007
Hey - while I agree that it may not make a huge box office dent *here* in North America where we’re willing to pay $12 to see a movie in big screen glory, but it can make a *huge* difference in Eastern Europe, South America, the Middle East, Asia and Africa where piracy reigns and that’s a big chunk of the global market.
Posted by: James D Kirk - 11/25/2007
Hey Chris! Thanks for the comment. Help me and our readers better understand just exactly “why” it makes any more of a difference in those other parts of the world. Not trying to be obstinate, in any way, perhaps I just don’t know the dynamics of the marketplace in those other regions. Are they not going to big screens to watch movies? Do they not buy dvd’s of movies? Are the folks there more likely to download a full film than they are here? Or is it that there are just large numbers of pirates that burn illegal discs FROM downloads themselves and then sell those pirated discs?
Thanks again!
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